desfitz

desfitz/ai-compute-limits

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

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ai-economics data-centers macroeconomics public-economics
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9 Open Issues Need Help Last updated: Oct 19, 2026

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Siting and consent deferral: what fraction of delayed projects is ultimately built? 16 days ago
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desfitz/ai-compute-limits
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Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Circular / related-party revenue: $8–18B overlap correction 16 days ago
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desfitz/ai-compute-limits
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Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Silicon economic life and the economic-depreciation rate 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
2026 AI revenue base: $187B from seven components — check each 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Sector chain parameters: slack absorption (σ_slack = 0.65) and verification (ν_verify = 0.20) 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs judgment
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Reallocation share of enterprise software and services budgets to AI: 12–32% 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs judgment
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Token price convergence and the marginal cash cost of inference 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Grid energization capacity: 22–40 GW/yr (paper) vs 57 GW in 2028 (Goldman Sachs semiconductor build) 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs disputed
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics
Facility opex: 2% of capital (Goldman Sachs / Epoch) vs 6.65% (paper decomposition) 16 days ago
help wanted question inputs disputed
desfitz/ai-compute-limits
0

Public economics: The Macroeconomic Limits of AI Compute: a vintage Fermi model of capital carry vs AI revenue. Paper, easy deck, open register and model. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23406476

TeX
#ai-economics#data-centers#macroeconomics#public-economics